December 21 2012

Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency says the country will never halt its uranium enrichment program.

“Neither sanctions nor UN Security Council resolutions nor military threats can prevent Iran from continuing its uranium enrichment program,” IRNA quoted Ambassador Ali-Asghar Soltaniyeh as saying on Tuesday.

Stratfor reported Monday that "Iran appears to be using the naval assets (in the Gulf of Aden) to protect its supply lines to the Houthi rebels …

"It is not yet clear how aggressive Saudi and Iranian rules of engagement are, or how close they are to coming into conflict with one another.

"But with Iranian warships apparently facilitating the smuggling of arms that Riyadh is intent on interdicting, the potential for an incident or conflict at sea is certainly on the rise."

As the proxy war between the two Gulf powers appeared to escalate, Iran's army commander, Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, warned Tuesday that Saudi "Wahhabi state terrorism" in Yemen could have consequences across the region.

Iranian state TV is reporting that the country will begin large-scale air defense war games Sunday aimed at protecting nuclear facilities against any possible attack.

Lebanese Army commander Gen. Jean Kahwaji instructed his troops to raise the level of alert along the border with Israel in preparation for an attack planned by "the Israeli enemy", London-based Alquds Alarabi reported on Saturday.

Iran launches its huge Modafean-e (Defenders) Aseman-e-Velayat air defense exercise Sunday, Nov. 22, to protect its nuclear sites, after failing to persuade Russia to deliver the linchpin of its air defenses, S-300 missiles. For two weeks, high-ranking Iranian politicians and generals bombarded Moscow to make good on its contract to supply the key weapon, to no avail. Saturday, Nov. 21, Iran's air force commander Brig. Gen. Ahmad Mighani spoke at length about the highly sophisticated S-300, without which, DEBKAfile's military sources say, Iran has no real defense against US and Israeli aerial or missile strikes against its nuclear installations.

Our sources report that, aside from the Russian-made Tor-M 1 short-range interceptor, Iran's air defense systems are outdated and pretty useless against US stealth bombers or the Israeli air force's electronic jamming instruments. Syria likewise lacked the weapons for stopping Israel attack its North-Korean-made nuclear reactor two years ago. The Iranian air force has nowhere near the capacity to take on US or Israeli air might.

Even if every last anti-air measure and device they possess is deployed, Iran's nuclear facilities will still be susceptible to attack, be they the uranium enrichment center at Natanz, the Isfahan fuel plants in Isfahan, the facilities in northern Tehran, or the reactors going up in Arak opposite the Straits of Hormuz.

Iranian Mirage F-1 fighters acted as strike craft while F-5 fighters - old American models and local products - were assigned defensive roles. However, the F-5s broke through Iranian radar systems, overwhelmed the defending craft in dogfights and seized command of the air space over the nuclear sites. In conditions of real war, therefore, Iran's atomic installations would be destroyed in the first hours of an attack.

Saudi Arabia’s Shiite population may be a powder keg ready to explode again, needing only a Houthi-Iranian match. Bhadrakumar describes the Saudi Shiites as “seething with resentment over Wahhabi intolerance.” A Human Rights Watch report last August stated Saudi authorities “routinely treats these people with scorn and suspicion” extending its discrimination against them beyond religion to education, employment and to the justice system.

The Yemeni conflict is fast evolving from a Houthi insurgency against the Abdullah Salah regime in Sanaa to a broad regional conflagration drawing in Saudi Arabia and Egypt as major players and increasingly the United States, whose involvement is building up into a direct confrontation with the rebels' sponsor, Iran.

The US and Iran depict the naval buildup in the Red Sea as part of their anti-piracy mission, but our military sources stress that Tehran is determined to bring its arms sealift safely to Yemen's Red Sea shore for delivery to the Houthi insurgents, while the Americans are equally resolved to help the Saudi navy keep them out.

An expedient ambush roadblock is one set-up in haste with readily available materials and personnel. There will be plenty of desperate people who were caught unprepared for such an event; their lack of morals and innate nature to survive will drive them to take from others, with deadly force if necessary. It is your job to protect your family and yourself from these threats, especially when on the move.

Israeli Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Ido Nehushtan told a Tel Aviv University audience Friday, Nov. 27: "The time for hard decisions is fast approaching," adding "The scope of security threats to Israel is very complex and we must prepare for all exigencies."

It also exposed a major vulnerability: In the event of a coordinated missile offensive from several directions, Israel would be unable to extend total security both to its missile bases, airfields and strategic sites and also to its civilian population. The Israeli Air force is not capable of knocking out all out once all five potential sources of missile attacks.

This means that if the Israel air force first targeted Iran, Syria and Hizballah would be free to provide Iran with active support by sending their missiles and rockets flying into Israel from its northern borders before their bases can be seriously impaired in an Israeli counter-attack. This gap in Israel's defenses leaves large parts of Israel open to attack - and not just the northern region which was blasted by Hizballah in 2006. Iran has provided its Lebanese proxy with upgraded rockets for reaching further south to Israel's central urban heartland of Greater Tel Aviv.

Defense minister Ehud Barak had this expanded peril in the mind when he said Wednesday, Nov. 25, that

Hizballah's next attack would expose all of Lebanon, not just the south, to Israel counter-strikes. He said this time unlike in 2006, the Lebanese government would be held responsible, given that the Iran-backed Shiite group had scattered its missile bases across the country.

Barak was flashing signals to the Lebanese and Syrian governments - as well as the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza - that they risked their countries being totally devastated if they opted to retaliate on Iran's behalf for an Israeli strike on the Islamic republic nuclear installations.

He also left the door open to possible pre-emptive Israeli strikes to demolish the missiles Syria, Hizballah and the Hamas have been steadily stockpiling.

The next day, Thursday, Nov. 26, deputy defense minister Mattan Vilnai promised to present the government with a complete missile defense program for the population within two weeks. He said there was no way the state could provide enough shelters for everyone, so his plan would provide for the rapid fortification of residential buildings and the enforcement of walls in apartments and stair wells. The ministry had learned from the Juniper Cobra that in the short time available before a possible military confrontation, this was the fastest and safest way to make sure that most people stayed put in an emergency and did not go wandering across the country and getting in the way of military operations.

All three statements by the Air Force commander, the defense minister and his deputy followed came in quick succession in the space of a week, during which civil defense measures and siren alerts were tested in different parts of Israel.