Apocalypse 2012? Some say ancient records foretell end of the world
By CHLOE JOHNSON
Staff Writer
www.citizen.com
Article Date: Sunday, January 13, 2008

Could the end of the world be just four years away?

A subculture has formed around the possibility, saying several prophecies predict some sort of apocalypse in or around 2012. It has been discussed online, analyzed in several new books and covered in the media.

The date of doomsday, based on the Mayan calendar, has been set as Dec. 12, 2012. If the calendar began on Aug. 11, 3114 B.C., as many researchers contend, then its "long cycle" would end on that day.

The ancient Mayan civilization thrived between roughly 1800 BC and 1450 AD in Central and South America where the ruins remain of the cities they built, including monumental pyramids. They are recognized for their knowledge of astronomy and precise calendars.

The Mayans had different calendars, which were used in combination. The typical annual calendar was 260 days, synchronized with a 365-day calendar. Another calendar known as the Long Count was developed to mark longer periods of time, running for the equivalent of 5,125 years.

The Mayan calendar isn't in widespread use outside of Guatemala, though others are interested in revitalizing it, said Keith Prufer, assistant professor of anthropology at the University of New Mexico.

He said the end of the calendar's long cycle does not imply an apocalypse, but rather an anniversary similar to the millennium, though for a period of more than 5,000 years.

"It's not the end of the world," he said.

That hasn't stopped people from making both ominous and positive connections between the restart of the Mayan calendar and other phenomena predicted to happen around the same time.

For instance, the winter solstice is on Dec. 21, and in the year 2012, a solar maximum also is expected to occur. At maximum, the Sun can have many sunspots and many more large flares and solar storms, said Karen Masters, a postdoctoral researcher at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

These events release charged particles from the surface of the Sun, which travel out into space. Those that hit the Earth can cause disruption to power grids, damage satellites and other electronics, she said.

"So solar maximum can be inconvenient — but I don't think it's going to end the world," she said. "The date matching the Mayan 'end of the world' prediction is just a coincidence — after all, lots of things are going to happen in 2012."

There is an 11-year cycle between the current solar minimum and the solar maximum NASA predicts will come in 2011 or 2012.

Some people are also anticipating a reversal of the magnetic poles soon. But there are at least hundreds of thousands of years between reversals, and scientists are not sure when it will happen again.

However, signs of a reversal have been observed for several years, including the magnetic field weakening, NASA has reported. If the trend continues, the magnetic field could collapse then reverse.

The magnetic field protects the planet from some cosmic radiation, which has the potential to knock out power grids and scramble communications systems.

The gradual process of a reversal would alter the direction compasses point, but most modern navigation equipment does not rely on the poles. However, some animal migration patterns might.

Other debatable 2012 prophecies include:

q The nuclear World War III predicted by Nostradamus, a physician in 1500s France noted for his future predictions

q A global peak in energy production, which would disrupt industrialized civilization as outlined in the Olduvai theory

q Technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence, making computers the source of invention in a theory known as the Singularity

Interest in the 2012 date has spread from the New Age movement to the mainstream, according to Michael Barkun, a political science professor at Syracuse University who has written books on millennial and apocalyptic topics.

The date has captured the attention of people just as the millennium or Y2K did, but the year 2000 came and went without disorder, he said.

The fascination, he said, could be the "desire to believe time and history have some sort of order and plan, and events are not random."

As such, he said, the date is not chosen at random, but for some reason.

"Those who advocate it don't advocate it on some kind of notion of blind faith," he said.

The belief that the world is going to end could have negative consequences if many people begin to hold it and make life changes based on it, he said.

It's difficult to determine how many people believe, but there don't appear to be any organized groups built around the belief that the world will end in 2012, he said.

David Frankfurter, professor of religious studies and history at the University of New Hampshire, said people only tend to get involved in such group activity if they're already feeling separate from the rest of society and have a leader who they believe has access to other-worldly knowledge.

Also, he said, such groups tend to have an idea of how they'll live through an apocalypse.

He said it is "manifestly preposterous" that the world will end in four years.

The idea that the dates of all apocalyptic writing would agree is virtually impossible since many cultures have different concepts of time, said Frankfurter, who this year is a fellow with the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University.

There are many ambiguous writings which can be read in different ways, including those of Nostradamus and the Bible's book of Revelations, he said.

"None of them actually say the world is going to end," he said.

Even if an ancient text did predict the end of time, he added, there is no evidence there were authorities on the subject with any more access to such knowledge than people have now.

Apocalyptic literature was written when people were looking for ways to understand God's plan, he said. They were widely read because people believed true revelations came from God to the writer.

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